Camping Out on the Market

Market Update
Author

Kyle Paquin

Published

July 5, 2024

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Summer brings vacation and many of my friends are either going out of town or just came back. My wife hates heat and I prefer mattresses so camping is off the table.

You can call me a heretic now.

But when buyers focus on family and leave work behind, the reaI estate market settles in for the summer. 2024 is no different. Regardless of rates, seasonality is a constant from year to year where we see a run up in spring that settles in the summer. Days on market bumps a little, list prices aren’t as aggressive, and sales volume begins to slowly decline through the rest of the calendar year.

Sales volume won’t recover under these market conditions. Contra Costa has over 1.1 million residents and only 700 homes sold in the county bounds in June. In 2019, that number was closer to 1100 homes. That means 36% fewer sales are happening in that county.

That’s $320 million of lost sales volume (with a $800,000 average home price).

$19.2 million of unearned commissions to Realtors.

Hundreds of thousands of dollars in unordered inspections (including appraisals, home inspections, pest, etc.)

Mortgage and Me

This section is the summary of the ongoing sitcom, “Mortgage and Me”, where you get news of what the banks are doing and how it affects us all.

Mortgage Rates: Waffling

Headlines have predicted lowering of rates for nearly 9 months and rates don’t seem to be listening. Now that we have hit summer, the second half of the year will be determined by “future” rate cuts- whenever they actually happen.

Refinance Volume: Consistently Higher

Refinancing is settling into a stable metric over the past month. Is this the public finally getting used to rates, moving on, and getting over with their lives? Hard to say with national metrics but they are all we have. What are you seeing?

East Bay Area Market Update

East Bay Area June Yearly Trends
Alameda, Contra Costa, Solano
2023 2024 % Change
Median Price 950000 985000 3.7%
Average Price per SF 617 634 2.8%
Number of Sales 1697 1711 0.8%
Median DOM 10 13 30.0%
Copyright © EBValueReport.com

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About the Author

My name is Kyle Paquin.

I have been a Certified Residential Real Estate Appraiser since 2015 within the East San Francisco Bay Area. My firm provides expert valuations on residential properties in the region. I have a passion for teaching and appraiser education which has led me to develop instructional courses for the Real Estate Appraisers Association (REAA). I currently live in Benicia where I operate a mid-term rental ADU with my wife and child.

The divide between agents, appraisers and lenders is not healthy for our clients. I aim to bridge the gap between us all so we can serve the market with a higher level of trust, integrity and knowledge. The mission of this blog is to provide greater clarity into how the East Bay Area markets are moving on a monthly basis. If you like this work or think that it sucks, please let me know.

My contact information

Office #: 925-937-3307

Email: office@valuableappraisal.com

Website: https://www.valuableappraisal.com/

Thanks for reading this market update